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Den Bosch vs Vitesse Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Den Bosch

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWL ·

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vitesse

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.5%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.8%1-18.9%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.9%3-16.0%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 40.8% 2.45 +17.4%

Draw 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 29.6% 40.8% 2.45 -16.5%

Over 2.5 66.1% 69.4% 1.44 -4.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 47.6% 2.10 -5.5%

BTTS 63.1% 72.5% 1.38 -12.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Den Bosch2.0

Vitesse1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.64

VITESSE · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Den Bosch (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +17.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Vitesse (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Den Bosch face Vitesse in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Den Bosch a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Vitesse 30%, so Den Bosch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Den Bosch and 1.5 for Vitesse (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Den Bosch are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.77 for Vitesse. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Den Bosch vs Vitesse Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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