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Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Waalwijk

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jong PSV U21

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.4%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-110.1%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.3%3-15.9%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 57.8% 1.73 -18.9%

Draw 23.5% 24.4% 4.10 -2.2%

Away win 29.6% 24.4% 4.10 +12.8%

Over 2.5 62.0% 70.4% 1.42 -12.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 48.8% 2.05 -19.4%

BTTS 60.8% 70.4% 1.42 -13.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 66.7% 1.50 -15.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 42.0% 2.38 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waalwijk1.9

Jong PSV U211.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WAALWIJK · PPG 1.43

JONG PSV U21 · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Waalwijk (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.2%

Jong PSV U21 (A) 29.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waalwijk face Jong PSV U21 in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waalwijk a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Jong PSV U21 30%, so Waalwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Waalwijk and 1.4 for Jong PSV U21 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waalwijk are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.18 for Jong PSV U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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