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FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

FC OSS

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jong Utrecht

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.2%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.3%1-110.8%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.5%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 50.0% 2.00 -6.6%

Draw 23.8% 26.7% 3.75 -6.5%

Away win 29.5% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

Over 2.5 59.9% 65.4% 1.53 -8.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 42.6% 2.35 -11.9%

BTTS 60.8% 69.0% 1.45 -11.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

Away O1.5 38.2% 44.4% 2.25 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC OSS1.7

Jong Utrecht1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC OSS · PPG 1.04

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC OSS (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -6.6%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.5%

Jong Utrecht (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC OSS face Jong Utrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC OSS a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Jong Utrecht 30%, so FC OSS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC OSS and 1.3 for Jong Utrecht (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC OSS are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 0.92 for Jong Utrecht. This match finished 2-1.

FC OSS vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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