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VVV Venlo vs Emmen Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:45

VVV Venlo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Emmen

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.6%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.8%1-18.3%1-27.2%1-34.1%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.2%3-15.6%3-24.8%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.4%4+-23.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 40.8% 2.45 +7.3%

Draw 21.7% 27.8% 3.60 -13.1%

Away win 34.5% 40.8% 2.45 -15.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.4% 1.44 -1.8%

Over 3.5 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.6% 1.83 +3.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VVV Venlo2.0

Emmen1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VVV VENLO · PPG 1.44

EMMEN · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

VVV Venlo (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +7.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.1%

Emmen (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

VVV Venlo face Emmen in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VVV Venlo a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Emmen 35%, so VVV Venlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for VVV Venlo and 1.7 for Emmen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VVV Venlo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.39 for Emmen. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 4-0.

VVV Venlo vs Emmen Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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