Today / Netherlands - Eerste Divisie / Jong AZ vs MVV

Jong AZ vs MVV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Jong AZ

PPG 0.84 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

MVV

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.1%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.9%1-110.4%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 56.5% 1.77 -24.9%

Draw 22.9% 23.8% 4.20 -2.3%

Away win 34.6% 26.3% 3.80 +31.5%

Over 2.5 62.2% 72.5% 1.38 -14.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 51.3% 1.95 -23.4%

BTTS 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 67.6% 1.48 -27.6%

Away O1.5 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2✓ 7.8%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong AZ1.7

MVV1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AZ · PPG 0.84

MVV · PPG 1.37

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jong AZ (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -24.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.3%

MVV (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong AZ face MVV in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong AZ a 42% chance, the draw 23% and MVV 35%, so Jong AZ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jong AZ and 1.5 for MVV (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong AZ are averaging 0.84 points per game versus 1.37 for MVV. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Jong AZ vs MVV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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