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Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Jong Ajax

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Helmond Sport

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.1%0-23.9%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.3%1-19.6%1-27.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.7%3-15.6%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.0%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Draw 22.1% 26.3% 3.80 -9.6%

Away win 34.4% 34.5% 2.90 -0.2%

Over 2.5 64.8% 65.4% 1.53 -0.9%

Over 3.5 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

BTTS 63.1% 69.0% 1.45 -8.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Away O1.5 45.5% 46.5% 2.15 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Ajax1.9

Helmond Sport1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AJAX · PPG 1.01

HELMOND SPORT · PPG 0.72

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jong Ajax (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.6%

Helmond Sport (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Ajax face Helmond Sport in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Ajax a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Helmond Sport 34%, so Jong Ajax are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jong Ajax and 1.5 for Helmond Sport (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Ajax are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 0.72 for Helmond Sport. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Jong Ajax vs Helmond Sport Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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