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Waalwijk vs NAC Breda Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Waalwijk

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDD ·

UPCOMING

NAC Breda

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.2%0-23.9%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.4%1-19.7%1-27.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.7%3-15.6%3-24.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.0%4+-23.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 35.7% 2.80 +30.2%

Draw 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

Away win 29.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.6%

Over 2.5 64.7% 67.6% 1.48 -4.2%

Over 3.5 44.1% 46.5% 2.15 -5.2%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 51.3% 1.95 +8.8%

Away O1.5 44.6% 57.1% 1.75 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waalwijk1.9

NAC Breda1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WAALWIJK · PPG 1.37

NAC BREDA · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Waalwijk (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +30.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.7%

NAC Breda (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waalwijk face NAC Breda in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waalwijk a 47% chance, the draw 24% and NAC Breda 30%, so Waalwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Waalwijk and 1.5 for NAC Breda (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waalwijk are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.64 for NAC Breda. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +32.6%.

Waalwijk vs NAC Breda Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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