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Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:00

Jong PSV U21

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC OSS

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.9%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.3%1-17.3%1-24.9%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.4%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-18.3%4+-25.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 60.6% 1.65 -9.4%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 23.3% 22.7% 4.40 +1.5%

Over 2.5 66.7% 69.4% 1.44 -4.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 38.2% 2.62 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong PSV U212.5

FC OSS1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG PSV U21 · PPG 1.79

FC OSS · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jong PSV U21 (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -9.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

FC OSS (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong PSV U21 face FC OSS in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong PSV U21 a 55% chance, the draw 22% and FC OSS 23%, so Jong PSV U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Jong PSV U21 and 1.4 for FC OSS (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.09 for FC OSS. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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