J1 League

JAPAN · 30 MATCHES TRACKED · 21 AUG 2026 – 2 SEPT 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

Upcoming J1 League predictions

10 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

2 SEPT10:00 Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo Over 2.5 50% 2.00 +1%2 SEPT10:00 Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima Over 2.5 60% 2.00 +19%2 SEPT10:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Vissel Kobe BTTS 50% 2.10 +6%2 SEPT10:00 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus BTTS 56% 1.67 -7%2 SEPT10:00 Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale Over 2.5 60% 1.83 +10%2 SEPT10:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol BTTS 55% 1.62 -12%2 SEPT10:00 JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama BTTS 55% 1.70 -7%2 SEPT10:00 Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga BTTS 62% 1.67 +3%2 SEPT10:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa Over 2.5 64% 2.25 +43%2 SEPT10:00 V-varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka BTTS 58% 1.65 -4%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 20 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

50.0%

1X2

10/20

55.0%

O/U 2.5

11/20

60.0%

BTTS

12/20

55.0%

Exact score

11/20

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

54.5%

Hit rate

6/11

2.01

Avg odds

+10.0%

ROI

+1.1u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.91 · -35.8% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 2.25 · +65.0% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · +65.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+115.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-0.5%

ROI

Match log

20 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 8 HIT · 7 MISS

29 AUG Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Over 2.5 -2% 0–0 MISS 29 AUG Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia Over 2.5 +44% 1–1 MISS 29 AUG Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol BTTS -5% 0–1 MISS 29 AUG V-varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo BTTS +9% 0–3 MISS 29 AUG Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT 29 AUG Kawasaki Frontale vs JEF United Chiba Home -15% 4–2 HIT 29 AUG Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima BTTS +16% 0–2 MISS 29 AUG Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos Over 2.5 +31% 3–2 HIT 29 AUG Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka BTTS -7% 1–0 MISS 29 AUG Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka BTTS +21% 2–1 HIT 23 AUG Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Over 2.5 +41% 3–1 HIT 22 AUG Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka Over 2.5 +24% 3–2 HIT 22 AUG Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy BTTS +4% 0–0 MISS 22 AUG Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock BTTS +1% 1–3 HIT 22 AUG Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka BTTS -6% 3–1 HIT