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Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Shimizu S-pulse

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

UPCOMING

FC Tokyo

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-112.4%0-28.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.2%2-16.8%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 27.4% 3.65 +3.3%

Draw 26.3% 29.9% 3.35 -7.1%

Away win 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

Away O1.5 40.1% 47.6% 2.10 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.9%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shimizu S-pulse1.0

FC Tokyo1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIMIZU S-PULSE · PPG 0.89

FC TOKYO · PPG 1.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shimizu S-pulse (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +3.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.1%

FC Tokyo (A) 44.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shimizu S-pulse face FC Tokyo in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shimizu S-pulse a 29% chance, the draw 26% and FC Tokyo 45%, so FC Tokyo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.3 for FC Tokyo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shimizu S-pulse are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.83 for FC Tokyo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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