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Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Cerezo Osaka

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

UPCOMING

Kashiwa Reysol

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.5%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.2%1-112.4%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Away win 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 39.2% 2.55 -2.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerezo Osaka1.3

Kashiwa Reysol1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CEREZO OSAKA · PPG 1.88

KASHIWA REYSOL · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerezo Osaka (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Kashiwa Reysol (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerezo Osaka face Kashiwa Reysol in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Kashiwa Reysol 42%, so Kashiwa Reysol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.3 for Kashiwa Reysol (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerezo Osaka are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.70 for Kashiwa Reysol. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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