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Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:30

Shimizu S-pulse

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kashiwa Reysol

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.6%0-27.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.5%2-17.5%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 30.3% 3.30 +3.6%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 2.5 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

Over 3.5 30.7% 28.2% 3.55 +9.0%

BTTS 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.9% 2.95 -5.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.5% 2.15 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1✓ 10.6%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shimizu S-pulse1.2

Kashiwa Reysol1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIMIZU S-PULSE · PPG 1.03

KASHIWA REYSOL · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shimizu S-pulse (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

Kashiwa Reysol (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shimizu S-pulse face Kashiwa Reysol in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shimizu S-pulse a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Kashiwa Reysol 43%, so Kashiwa Reysol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.4 for Kashiwa Reysol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shimizu S-pulse are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.48 for Kashiwa Reysol. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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