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Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Urawa

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yokohama F. Marinos

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+31.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.3%0-26.1%0-33.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.3%1-110.6%1-28.9%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.7%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.8%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Draw 22.6% 31.3% 3.20 -16.6%

Away win 43.2% 34.7% 2.88 +24.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 47.6% 2.10 +31.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 26.7% 3.75 +47.4%

BTTS 62.3% 56.5% 1.77 +10.3%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 36.4% 2.75 +31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.3%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–2 6.1%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urawa1.5

Yokohama F. Marinos1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

URAWA · PPG 1.09

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Urawa (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.6%

Yokohama F. Marinos (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Urawa face Yokohama F. Marinos in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urawa a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Yokohama F. Marinos 43%, so Yokohama F. Marinos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Urawa and 1.7 for Yokohama F. Marinos (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urawa are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.64 for Yokohama F. Marinos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +47.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Urawa vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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