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Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Nagoya Grampus

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gamba Osaka

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.9%0-26.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.4%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 43.5% 2.30 -18.8%

Draw 24.5% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

Away win 40.2% 34.5% 2.90 +16.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 33.9% 32.3% 3.10 +5.1%

BTTS 57.9% 61.7% 1.62 -6.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 40.8% 2.45 +18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.9%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nagoya Grampus1.4

Gamba Osaka1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAGOYA GRAMPUS · PPG 1.41

GAMBA OSAKA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nagoya Grampus (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.3%

Gamba Osaka (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nagoya Grampus face Gamba Osaka in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nagoya Grampus a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Gamba Osaka 40%, so Gamba Osaka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.5 for Gamba Osaka (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nagoya Grampus are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.36 for Gamba Osaka. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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