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Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Vissel Kobe

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cerezo Osaka

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.3%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.3%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 52.6% 1.90 -15.8%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 29.0% 25.3% 3.95 +8.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Over 3.5 29.9% 30.8% 3.25 -1.7%

BTTS 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 51.8% 1.93 -22.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.5%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0✓ 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vissel Kobe1.5

Cerezo Osaka1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VISSEL KOBE · PPG 1.85

CEREZO OSAKA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vissel Kobe (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Cerezo Osaka (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vissel Kobe face Cerezo Osaka in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vissel Kobe a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Cerezo Osaka 29%, so Vissel Kobe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vissel Kobe and 1.1 for Cerezo Osaka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vissel Kobe are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.36 for Cerezo Osaka. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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