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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDD ·

UPCOMING

Nagoya Grampus

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.3%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-111.1%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.4%3-15.8%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 66.7% 1.50 -23.9%

Draw 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +0.7%

Away win 25.2% 17.2% 5.80 +27.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 66.7% 1.50 -25.1%

Away O1.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.8

Nagoya Grampus1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA · PPG 1.78

NAGOYA GRAMPUS · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -23.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.7%

Nagoya Grampus (A) 25.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanfrecce Hiroshima face Nagoya Grampus in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Nagoya Grampus 25%, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.1 for Nagoya Grampus (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanfrecce Hiroshima are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.09 for Nagoya Grampus. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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