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Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Kashima

PPG 2.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Avispa Fukuoka

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+23.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.8%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.5%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 57.8% 1.73 -11.3%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 24.2% 19.2% 5.20 +15.5%

Over 2.5 52.7% 42.6% 2.35 +23.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 22.2% 4.50 +39.1%

BTTS 53.0% 47.6% 2.10 +11.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 48.8% 2.05 +0.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 21.1% 4.75 +13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kashima1.7

Avispa Fukuoka0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KASHIMA · PPG 2.45

AVISPA FUKUOKA · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kashima (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Avispa Fukuoka (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kashima face Avispa Fukuoka in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kashima a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Avispa Fukuoka 24%, so Kashima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kashima and 0.9 for Avispa Fukuoka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kashima are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.30 for Avispa Fukuoka. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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