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Tokyo Verdy vs Vissel Kobe Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Tokyo Verdy

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

UPCOMING

Vissel Kobe

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-112.8%0-28.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.2%2-16.7%2-24.3%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 24.4% 4.10 +13.3%

Draw 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Away win 42.5% 50.0% 2.00 -15.0%

Over 2.5 48.3% 38.5% 2.60 +25.6%

Over 3.5 26.9% 19.0% 5.25 +24.7%

BTTS 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 23.1% 4.33 +33.4%

Away O1.5 37.8% 41.7% 2.40 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.3%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tokyo Verdy1.0

Vissel Kobe1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TOKYO VERDY · PPG 1.14

VISSEL KOBE · PPG 1.41

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tokyo Verdy (H) 29.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Vissel Kobe (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tokyo Verdy face Vissel Kobe in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tokyo Verdy a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Vissel Kobe 43%, so Vissel Kobe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tokyo Verdy and 1.3 for Vissel Kobe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tokyo Verdy are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.41 for Vissel Kobe. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.4%.

Tokyo Verdy vs Vissel Kobe Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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