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JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

JEF United Chiba

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

UPCOMING

Fagiano Okayama

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.7%0-28.4%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.3%2-16.7%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 26.0% 3.85 +3.5%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 48.3% 52.6% 1.90 -8.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 31.1% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JEF United Chiba1.1

Fagiano Okayama1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JEF UNITED CHIBA · PPG 0.87

FAGIANO OKAYAMA · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JEF United Chiba (H) 27.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Fagiano Okayama (A) 48.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

JEF United Chiba face Fagiano Okayama in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JEF United Chiba a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Fagiano Okayama 48%, so Fagiano Okayama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for JEF United Chiba and 1.6 for Fagiano Okayama (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JEF United Chiba are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.02 for Fagiano Okayama. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.8%.

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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