Today / Japan - J1 League / Machida Zelvia vs Urawa

Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Machida Zelvia

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWD ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Urawa

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+40.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.2%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.0%1-17.7%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.7%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.5%4+-24.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Draw 18.4% 30.8% 3.25 -24.1%

Away win 20.1% 23.1% 4.33 -7.8%

Over 2.5 65.4% 46.5% 2.15 +40.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 26.7% 3.75 +63.1%

BTTS 61.2% 52.4% 1.91 +16.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 50.0% 2.00 +30.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 25.0% 4.00 +42.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.2%

H 62% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1✓ 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Machida Zelvia2.5

Urawa1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MACHIDA ZELVIA · PPG 1.70

URAWA · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Machida Zelvia (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +10.7%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -24.1%

Urawa (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Machida Zelvia face Urawa in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Machida Zelvia a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Urawa 20%, so Machida Zelvia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Machida Zelvia and 1.1 for Urawa (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Machida Zelvia are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.20 for Urawa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +63.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Japan - J1 League Predictions