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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Yokohama F. Marinos

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWL ·

UPCOMING

Kyoto Sanga

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.7%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.9%1-110.4%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 45.5% 2.20 +2.7%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Over 2.5 60.9% 54.1% 1.85 +12.7%

Over 3.5 37.6% 30.8% 3.25 +22.2%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 51.3% 47.6% 2.10 +7.7%

Away O1.5 41.7% 37.7% 2.65 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yokohama F. Marinos1.8

Kyoto Sanga1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS · PPG 1.31

KYOTO SANGA · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yokohama F. Marinos (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Kyoto Sanga (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yokohama F. Marinos face Kyoto Sanga in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yokohama F. Marinos a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Kyoto Sanga 29%, so Yokohama F. Marinos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.3 for Kyoto Sanga (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yokohama F. Marinos are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.03 for Kyoto Sanga. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.2%.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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