Today / Japan - J1 League / Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:30

Fagiano Okayama

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDL ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tokyo Verdy

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.4%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.4%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 39.2% 2.55 +27.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 20.0% 5.00 +24.3%

BTTS 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 39.2% 2.55 +2.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 27.0% 3.70 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 0–0✓ 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fagiano Okayama1.5

Tokyo Verdy1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FAGIANO OKAYAMA · PPG 1.70

TOKYO VERDY · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fagiano Okayama (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +5.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Tokyo Verdy (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fagiano Okayama face Tokyo Verdy in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Tokyo Verdy 25%, so Fagiano Okayama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fagiano Okayama and 1.0 for Tokyo Verdy (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fagiano Okayama are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.11 for Tokyo Verdy. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Japan - J1 League Predictions