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Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Mito Hollyhock

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWD ·

UPCOMING

Kashima

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.9%0-27.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.7%1-111.2%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.2%2-17.1%2-25.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 25.3% 3.95 +21.7%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

Away win 45.0% 52.6% 1.90 -14.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 50.0% 2.00 +19.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 28.2% 3.55 +29.2%

BTTS 59.2% 54.6% 1.83 +8.3%

Home O1.5 38.2% 29.9% 3.35 +28.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.2%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mito Hollyhock1.3

Kashima1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MITO HOLLYHOCK · PPG 1.12

KASHIMA · PPG 2.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mito Hollyhock (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +21.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.7%

Kashima (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mito Hollyhock face Kashima in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mito Hollyhock a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Kashima 45%, so Kashima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mito Hollyhock and 1.7 for Kashima (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mito Hollyhock are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 2.07 for Kashima. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.2%.

Mito Hollyhock vs Kashima Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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