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Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 10:00

Avispa Fukuoka

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLL ·

UPCOMING

Urawa

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+43.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 42.6% 2.35 +9.8%

Draw 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

Away win 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -4.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 44.4% 2.25 +43.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 23.1% 4.33 +75.4%

BTTS 63.1% 52.6% 1.90 +19.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 39.2% 2.55 +27.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 32.3% 3.10 +30.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avispa Fukuoka1.8

Urawa1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AVISPA FUKUOKA · PPG 1.22

URAWA · PPG 1.02

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Avispa Fukuoka (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +9.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.7%

Urawa (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avispa Fukuoka face Urawa in Japan - J1 League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Urawa 30%, so Avispa Fukuoka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.4 for Urawa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avispa Fukuoka are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.02 for Urawa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +75.4%.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Urawa Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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