Today / Japan - J1 League / Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama

Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Nagoya Grampus

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fagiano Okayama

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.6%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 40.0% 2.50 +9.3%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 29.4% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 29.9% 26.3% 3.80 +8.2%

BTTS 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.0% 2.50 +0.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 37.7% 2.65 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nagoya Grampus1.4

Fagiano Okayama1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAGOYA GRAMPUS · PPG 1.64

FAGIANO OKAYAMA · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nagoya Grampus (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Fagiano Okayama (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nagoya Grampus face Fagiano Okayama in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nagoya Grampus a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Fagiano Okayama 29%, so Nagoya Grampus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.2 for Fagiano Okayama (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nagoya Grampus are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.20 for Fagiano Okayama. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Japan - J1 League Predictions