Today / Japan - J1 League / Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima

Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Tokyo Verdy

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kashima

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.8%0-27.2%0-33.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.9%1-111.3%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.5%2-17.3%2-26.0%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 20.8% 4.80 +48.3%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 44.6% 57.1% 1.75 -21.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 26.0% 3.85 +41.3%

BTTS 60.1% 51.8% 1.93 +16.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 25.0% 4.00 +48.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.1%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2✓ 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tokyo Verdy1.3

Kashima1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TOKYO VERDY · PPG 1.31

KASHIMA · PPG 1.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tokyo Verdy (H) 30.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +48.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Kashima (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tokyo Verdy face Kashima in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tokyo Verdy a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Kashima 45%, so Kashima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tokyo Verdy and 1.6 for Kashima (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tokyo Verdy are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.91 for Kashima. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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