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Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Kyoto Sanga

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Avispa Fukuoka

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.9%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.9%1-111.5%1-28.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 39.2% 2.55 -6.2%

Draw 24.7% 33.3% 3.00 -15.5%

Away win 38.5% 35.1% 2.85 +9.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 40.8% 2.45 +46.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 21.1% 4.75 +74.3%

BTTS 60.3% 50.0% 2.00 +20.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 34.7% 2.88 +15.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 32.3% 3.10 +26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1✓ 8.4%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kyoto Sanga1.5

Avispa Fukuoka1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KYOTO SANGA · PPG 1.09

AVISPA FUKUOKA · PPG 1.09

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kyoto Sanga (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.5%

Avispa Fukuoka (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kyoto Sanga face Avispa Fukuoka in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kyoto Sanga a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Avispa Fukuoka 39%, so Avispa Fukuoka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kyoto Sanga and 1.5 for Avispa Fukuoka (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kyoto Sanga are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.09 for Avispa Fukuoka. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +74.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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