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Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Kyoto Sanga

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLW ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mito Hollyhock

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.6%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.2%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 46.5% 2.15 +15.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 44.4% 2.25 +9.8%

Away O1.5 36.1% 30.3% 3.30 +19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kyoto Sanga1.7

Mito Hollyhock1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KYOTO SANGA · PPG 1.30

MITO HOLLYHOCK · PPG 0.65

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kyoto Sanga (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Mito Hollyhock (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kyoto Sanga face Mito Hollyhock in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kyoto Sanga a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Mito Hollyhock 29%, so Kyoto Sanga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kyoto Sanga and 1.2 for Mito Hollyhock (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kyoto Sanga are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.65 for Mito Hollyhock. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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