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Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Mito Hollyhock

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Machida Zelvia

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+43.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-19.0%0-28.2%0-34.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.9%1-110.7%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.5%2-16.4%2-25.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 25.6% 3.90 -2.9%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Away win 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Over 2.5 60.4% 42.0% 2.38 +43.8%

Over 3.5 37.9% 22.2% 4.50 +70.5%

BTTS 60.1% 50.0% 2.00 +20.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 26.3% 3.80 +22.0%

Away O1.5 50.4% 43.5% 2.30 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.1%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mito Hollyhock1.2

Machida Zelvia1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MITO HOLLYHOCK · PPG 1.15

MACHIDA ZELVIA · PPG 2.07

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mito Hollyhock (H) 24.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.9%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

Machida Zelvia (A) 52.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mito Hollyhock face Machida Zelvia in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mito Hollyhock a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Machida Zelvia 52%, so Machida Zelvia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mito Hollyhock and 1.8 for Machida Zelvia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mito Hollyhock are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 2.07 for Machida Zelvia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +70.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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