Leagues / IRELAND / First Division
First Division
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 54 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
53.7%
1X2
29/54
46.3%
O/U 2.5
25/54
44.4%
BTTS
24/54
42.6%
Exact score
23/54
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
33
Settled
45.5%
Hit rate
15/33
1.78
Avg odds
-20.9%
ROI
-6.9u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=14 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -12.1% ROI
BTTS · N=14 35.7% HIT · AVG 1.72 · -39.1% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.93 · +16.7% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.75 · -10.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-16.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-67.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+119.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
24
Bets
46%
Hit
-25.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 3 PICKS · 2 HIT · 1 MISS
3 JUL Cobh Ramblers vs Cork City Away -3% 0–1 HIT3 JUL Finn Harps vs Wexford BTTS -14% 1–0 MISS3 JUL Bray Wanderers vs Athlone Town Home -8% 1–0 HIT3 JUL Treaty Utd vs Kerry — NO PICK 2–1 —June 2026 // 8 PICKS · 4 HIT · 4 MISS
26 JUN Wexford vs Treaty Utd BTTS -1% 0–0 MISS26 JUN Cork City vs Bray Wanderers Over 2.5 +9% 2–0 MISS26 JUN Athlone Town vs Finn Harps Home -9% 1–1 MISS26 JUN Kerry vs Longford Town — NO PICK 2–1 —19 JUN Cobh Ramblers vs Finn Harps Home -13% 3–1 HIT19 JUN Athlone Town vs Wexford — NO PICK 2–2 —19 JUN Bray Wanderers vs Longford Town Over 2.5 -3% 5–2 HIT19 JUN UC Dublin vs Kerry Home -1% 0–1 MISS19 JUN Cork City vs Treaty Utd Home -13% 4–0 HIT13 JUN Longford Town vs Cobh Ramblers — NO PICK 2–1 —12 JUN Wexford vs Cork City Away -1% 0–2 HIT