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Treaty United vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 30 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Treaty United

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

UPCOMING

Wexford

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.1%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.2%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.6%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 38.8% 2.58 +32.4%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 23.9% 38.8% 2.58 -23.0%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

BTTS 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 24.7% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty United1.5

Wexford0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UNITED · PPG 1.36

WEXFORD · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Treaty United (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +32.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Wexford (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty United face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty United a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Wexford 24%, so Treaty United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Treaty United and 0.9 for Wexford (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty United are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.67 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +24.1%.

Treaty United vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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