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Wexford vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Wexford

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Athlone Town

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 45.9% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-17.3%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-111.6%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-14.8%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 45.9% 2.18 +12.7%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 24.0% 32.8% 3.05 -16.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

Over 3.5 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

BTTS 49.7% 61.7% 1.62 -19.5%

Home O1.5 47.4% 48.8% 2.05 -2.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 39.2% 2.55 -32.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wexford1.6

Athlone Town0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEXFORD · PPG 1.85

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wexford (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +12.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Athlone Town (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Athlone Town 24%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Wexford and 0.8 for Athlone Town (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.54 for Athlone Town. This match finished 0-2.

Wexford vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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