Today / Ireland - First Division / Treaty United vs Cork City

Treaty United vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Treaty United

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cork City

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-113.5%0-29.8%0-34.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.0%2-15.8%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 16.7% 6.00 +34.0%

Draw 26.0% 25.0% 4.00 +2.4%

Away win 48.0% 65.4% 1.53 -26.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Over 3.5 28.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.3%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.3% 3.80 +16.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 62.5% 1.60 -34.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty United0.9

Cork City1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UNITED · PPG 1.38

CORK CITY · PPG 2.08

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Treaty United (H) 26.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +34.0%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +2.4%

Cork City (A) 48.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty United face Cork City in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty United a 26% chance, the draw 26% and Cork City 48%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Treaty United and 1.4 for Cork City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty United are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.08 for Cork City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Treaty United vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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