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Bray Wanderers vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Bray Wanderers

PPG 2.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Finn Harps

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.1%1-14.4%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-17.1%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.8%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.0%4+-114.4%4+-25.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 76.9% 1.30 -2.5%

Draw 16.6% 18.5% 5.40 -6.2%

Away win 8.4% 11.5% 8.70 -16.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 66.7% 1.50 +0.8%

Over 3.5 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 75.2% 1.33 +4.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 75% / xG 3.3-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.8%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 4–0 8.8%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bray Wanderers3.3

Finn Harps0.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 2.15

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.46

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.54 for Home, form 2.15 vs 0.46 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bray Wanderers (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -2.5%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -6.2%

Finn Harps (A) 8.4%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Finn Harps 8%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Bray Wanderers and 0.7 for Finn Harps (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.46 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.6%.

Bray Wanderers vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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