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Bray Wanderers vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 30 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Bray Wanderers

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Cork City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.8%0-24.3%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.9%1-110.2%1-27.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.6%3-15.3%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 28.2% 3.55 +52.6%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 34.3% 52.6% 1.90 -34.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.8% 44.4% 2.25 -8.2%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 43.5% 2.30 +14.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 60.6% 1.65 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bray Wanderers1.8

Cork City1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 2.21

CORK CITY · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bray Wanderers (H) 43.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +52.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Cork City (A) 34.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -34.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Cork City in Ireland - First Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Cork City 34%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bray Wanderers and 1.5 for Cork City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 2.00 for Cork City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.3%.

Bray Wanderers vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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