Today / Ireland - First Division / Cork City vs Kerry

Cork City vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kerry

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-17.7%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.3%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-17.6%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% 71.4% 1.40 -14.5%

Draw 19.6% 22.5% 4.45 -7.7%

Away win 19.3% 13.2% 7.60 +28.0%

Over 2.5 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 39.2% 2.55 +0.7%

BTTS 53.4% 56.5% 1.77 -5.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 69.0% 1.45 -9.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.4%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.4

Kerry0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.54

KERRY · PPG 0.77

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.54 vs 0.77 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 61.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -14.5%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -7.7%

Kerry (A) 19.3%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Kerry 19%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cork City and 0.7 for Kerry (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.54 points per game versus 0.77 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.7%.

Cork City vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions