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Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 30 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Athlone Town

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.6%0-26.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.4%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.7%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 23.0% 4.35 +55.3%

Draw 26.2% 26.7% 3.75 -1.1%

Away win 38.1% 57.5% 1.74 -33.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 31.2% 31.3% 3.20 -0.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 56.5% 1.77 -42.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.1

Athlone Town1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.14

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.71

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 35.7%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +55.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.1%

Athlone Town (A) 38.1%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Athlone Town 38%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Finn Harps and 1.1 for Athlone Town (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.3%.

Finn Harps vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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