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Kerry vs UCD Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

UCD

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.6%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.0%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 37.6% 2.66 +29.8%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 26.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

Away O1.5 32.5% 46.5% 2.15 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.6

UCD1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.92

UCD · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +29.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

UCD (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face UCD in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 49% chance, the draw 25% and UCD 27%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kerry and 1.0 for UCD (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.15 for UCD. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Kerry vs UCD Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions