Today / Ireland - First Division / UCD vs Wexford

UCD vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

UCD

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wexford

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.7%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-19.5%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.6%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-15.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 48.5% 2.06 +17.8%

Draw 22.0% 27.4% 3.65 -11.8%

Away win 20.8% 30.8% 3.25 -19.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.1% 1.75 -6.4%

Over 3.5 32.9% 35.1% 2.85 -6.2%

BTTS 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Home O1.5 57.7% 52.4% 1.91 +10.2%

Away O1.5 19.7% 39.2% 2.55 -29.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCD2.0

Wexford0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UCD · PPG 1.92

WEXFORD · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UCD (H) 57.2%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +17.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.8%

Wexford (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCD face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCD a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Wexford 21%, so UCD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for UCD and 0.8 for Wexford (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCD are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.77 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.3%.

UCD vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions