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UCD vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

UCD

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Finn Harps

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-11.6%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.2%1-14.8%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.4%2-17.3%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.5%3-17.3%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.8%4+-111.6%4+-23.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 79.4% 1.26 -4.0%

Draw 15.6% 16.9% 5.90 -4.8%

Away win 8.2% 10.8% 9.30 -14.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 72.5% 1.38 -5.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 77.3% 80.0% 1.25 -3.4%

Away O1.5 16.3% 25.0% 4.00 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 76% / xG 3.0-0.6 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.5%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 4–0 9.4%

#4 1–1 4.8%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCD3.0

Finn Harps0.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UCD · PPG 2.00

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.43 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UCD (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -4.0%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -4.8%

Finn Harps (A) 8.2%

ODDS 9.30 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCD face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCD a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Finn Harps 8%, so UCD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for UCD and 0.6 for Finn Harps (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCD are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Finn Harps. This match finished 5-4.

UCD vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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