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Athlone Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.7%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 35.0% 2.86 +32.7%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 29.3% 44.2% 2.26 -20.3%

Over 2.5 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

Over 3.5 36.2% 37.0% 2.70 -2.3%

BTTS 57.1% 65.4% 1.53 -12.6%

Home O1.5 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 51.3% 1.95 -35.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.6

Bray Wanderers1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 1.71

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +32.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Bray Wanderers (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Bray Wanderers 29%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athlone Town and 1.1 for Bray Wanderers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.86 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Athlone Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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