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Finn Harps vs Cobh Ramblers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cobh Ramblers

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-110.1%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.0%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.4%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 31.7% 3.15 +15.6%

Draw 25.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.9%

Away win 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%

BTTS 53.0% 65.4% 1.53 -18.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 41.7% 2.40 -9.3%

Away O1.5 35.3% 54.1% 1.85 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 0–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.3

Cobh Ramblers1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.23

COBH RAMBLERS · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 36.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +15.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.9%

Cobh Ramblers (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Cobh Ramblers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Cobh Ramblers 38%, so Cobh Ramblers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Finn Harps and 1.1 for Cobh Ramblers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.15 for Cobh Ramblers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Finn Harps vs Cobh Ramblers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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