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Cobh Ramblers vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Cobh Ramblers

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Longford Town

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.0%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.2%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 41.0% 2.44 +13.2%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

Away win 29.3% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

BTTS 54.2% 60.6% 1.65 -10.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobh Ramblers1.5

Longford Town0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COBH RAMBLERS · PPG 1.57

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cobh Ramblers (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +13.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.7%

Longford Town (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobh Ramblers face Longford Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobh Ramblers a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Longford Town 29%, so Cobh Ramblers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cobh Ramblers and 0.9 for Longford Town (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobh Ramblers are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Longford Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Cobh Ramblers vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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