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Longford Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Longford Town

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.8%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.4%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 32.8% 3.05 +54.0%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

Away win 25.1% 45.5% 2.20 -26.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.0% 2.70 -1.2%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 42.0% 2.38 +16.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 51.3% 1.95 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.7

Bray Wanderers1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.77

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 50.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +54.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.7%

Bray Wanderers (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Bray Wanderers 25%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Longford Town and 1.1 for Bray Wanderers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.92 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 4-2.

Longford Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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