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Athlone Town vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Longford Town

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-110.1%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-113.0%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.3%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 43.5% 2.30 +7.0%

Draw 27.5% 29.0% 3.45 -3.1%

Away win 26.0% 34.7% 2.88 -15.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Over 3.5 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

BTTS 49.6% 58.8% 1.70 -15.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 45.5% 2.20 -18.2%

Away O1.5 23.9% 39.2% 2.55 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.3

Longford Town0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 1.62

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +7.0%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.1%

Longford Town (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Longford Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Longford Town 26%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Athlone Town and 0.9 for Longford Town (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.08 for Longford Town.

Athlone Town vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions