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Kerry vs Treaty United Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Treaty United

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-15.9%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-110.4%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.0%3-15.4%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 51.0% 1.96 +8.6%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 29.4% 3.40 +2.0%

BTTS 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 18.2% 32.3% 3.10 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 2–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.8

Treaty United0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.86

TREATY UNITED · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +8.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Treaty United (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Treaty United in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Treaty United 22%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kerry and 0.7 for Treaty United (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.79 for Treaty United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Kerry vs Treaty United Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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