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Cork City vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wexford

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.1%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.8%1-15.8%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.0%4+-110.5%4+-23.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.5% 70.9% 1.41 +3.6%

Draw 16.9% 20.6% 4.85 -10.8%

Away win 9.6% 15.4% 6.50 -22.6%

Over 2.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% 44.4% 2.25 -2.8%

BTTS 52.7% 60.6% 1.65 -13.0%

Home O1.5 66.7% 72.5% 1.38 -8.0%

Away O1.5 18.2% 28.6% 3.50 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 74% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.3%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.8

Wexford0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.57

WEXFORD · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.15 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 73.5%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV +3.6%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -10.8%

Wexford (A) 9.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Wexford 10%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Cork City and 0.7 for Wexford (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Cork City vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions