1. Deild
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 31 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
38.7%
1X2
12/31
61.3%
O/U 2.5
19/31
54.8%
BTTS
17/31
32.3%
Exact score
10/31
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
31
Settled
58.1%
Hit rate
18/31
1.46
Avg odds
-14.7%
ROI
-4.5u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=16 68.8% HIT · AVG 1.42 · -2.8% ROI
BTTS · N=8 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.46 · -63.8% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.78 · +30.7% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.36 · +36.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.40 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+42.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+28.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
14%
Hit
-80.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
20
Bets
65%
Hit
-1.6%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 6 PICKS · 3 HIT · 3 MISS
4 JUL Grindavik vs Vestri BTTS -24% 0–0 MISS4 JUL Leiknir R. vs Volsungur HO1.5 3–3 HIT3 JUL IR Reykjavik vs Afturelding AO1.5 0–1 MISS3 JUL Aeggir vs Fylkir Over 2.5 -13% 2–4 HIT3 JUL Grotta vs HK Kopavogur Over 2.5 -1% 2–1 HIT3 JUL Njardvik vs Throttur R. BTTS -23% 1–0 MISSJune 2026 // 9 PICKS · 4 HIT · 5 MISS
29 JUN Afturelding vs Aeggir HO1.5 8–1 HIT27 JUN Throttur R. vs Vestri Over 2.5 -9% 1–1 MISS27 JUN Volsungur vs Grotta BTTS -11% 2–2 HIT26 JUN Fylkir vs HK Kopavogur Over 2.5 -6% 0–2 MISS26 JUN Leiknir R. vs IR Reykjavik Over 2.5 -4% 2–1 HIT26 JUN Grindavik vs Aeggir BTTS -21% 0–0 MISS26 JUN Afturelding vs Njardvik Over 2.5 -1% 2–0 MISS21 JUN Vestri vs Afturelding Over 2.5 +7% 2–0 MISS21 JUN IR Reykjavik vs Volsungur Over 2.5 -10% 4–4 HIT