1. Deild
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming 1. Deild predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
5 SEPT14:00 Grotta vs Völsungur Over 2.5 68% 1.36 -7%5 SEPT14:00 HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir HO1.5 — — —5 SEPT14:00 Ægir vs Grindavik Over 2.5 65% 1.25 -19%5 SEPT14:00 Njardvik vs Afturelding Over 2.5 67% 1.40 -6%5 SEPT14:00 Vestri vs Throttur Reykjavik Over 2.5 64% 1.44 -8%5 SEPT14:00 IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir R. BTTS 62% 1.44 -11%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 71 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
53.5%
1X2
38/71
64.8%
O/U 2.5
46/71
56.3%
BTTS
40/71
31.0%
Exact score
22/71
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
13
Settled
61.5%
Hit rate
8/13
1.50
Avg odds
-3.3%
ROI
-0.4u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=9 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.40 · -20.2% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.02 · +31.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.39 · +38.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+40.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
60%
Hit
-17.8%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
3
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
⚠ No value found
4
Bets
100%
Hit
+76.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
29 AUG Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur BTTS -26% 4–3 HIT29 AUG Leiknir R. vs Njardvik BTTS -14% 2–0 MISS29 AUG Afturelding vs Vestri HO1.5 2–0 HIT29 AUG Völsungur vs IR Reykjavik Over 2.5 +4% 3–1 HIT28 AUG Throttur Reykjavik vs Ægir HO1.5 7–2 HIT28 AUG Fylkir vs Grotta Over 2.5 -9% 3–1 HIT25 AUG Afturelding vs Grotta Over 2.5 +1% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Fylkir vs Grindavik HO1.5 6–1 HIT22 AUG HK Kopavogur vs Throttur Reykjavik Over 2.5 -8% 3–0 HIT22 AUG Vestri vs Leiknir R. BTTS -14% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Njardvik vs Völsungur HO1.5 4–0 HIT21 AUG Ægir vs Afturelding Over 2.5 -6% 0–7 HIT21 AUG Grotta vs IR Reykjavik Over 2.5 -16% 1–3 HIT17 AUG Grindavik vs Grotta BTTS -26% 0–0 MISS17 AUG Völsungur vs Vestri Over 2.5 -11% 2–0 MISS