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Grotta vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:15

Grotta

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

IR Reykjavik

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.9%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.6%1-15.5%1-24.1%1-32.1%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.2%2-17.8%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-05.0%3-17.5%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-110.7%4+-28.1%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 45.5% 2.20 +21.9%

Draw 20.2% 25.0% 4.00 -11.5%

Away win 24.5% 40.0% 2.50 -23.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 80.0% 1.25 -15.9%

Over 3.5 47.9% 60.6% 1.65 -21.0%

BTTS 63.2% 82.0% 1.22 -22.9%

Home O1.5 76.6% 66.7% 1.50 +14.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 63.7% 1.57 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 55% / xG 2.9-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 5.5%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 5.9%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta2.9

IR Reykjavik1.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.11

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +21.9%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.5%

IR Reykjavik (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face IR Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 55% chance, the draw 20% and IR Reykjavik 25%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Grotta and 1.5 for IR Reykjavik (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.44 for IR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Grotta vs IR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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