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HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

HK Kopavogur

PPG 2.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+21.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.0%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.8%1-15.6%1-24.1%1-32.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.5%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-110.7%4+-27.9%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 35.7% 2.80 +62.7%

Draw 17.4% 27.8% 3.60 -22.4%

Away win 24.5% 48.8% 2.05 -29.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 78.1% 1.28 -7.1%

Over 3.5 52.5% 59.9% 1.67 -12.3%

BTTS 67.8% 77.5% 1.29 -12.5%

Home O1.5 72.6% 59.9% 1.67 +21.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 69.4% 1.44 -39.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob67.8%

H 58% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 1–2 4.1%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur2.8

Fylkir1.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 2.80

FYLKIR · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 58.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +62.7%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -22.4%

Fylkir (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 58% chance, the draw 17% and Fylkir 25%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for HK Kopavogur and 1.5 for Fylkir (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +85.7%.

HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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